Code Level B20 Catia Download: A Complete Guide for CATIA V5 Users
Figure 8.31552 Projection of sea level rise since year-end 2005 to year-end 2099, aggregated as a multi-model ensemble mean, compared with predictions made under the SSP1, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projections are rescaled so that the year-end 2090 value equals the year-end 2005 value. IHDP (Figure 8.3a), modified from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), 2014.
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Observations from the period 19612001 indicate that ice sheet SLR is not significant on decadal time scales, especially in comparison to GMSL SLR. However, SLR is found to increase substantially since the middle of the 20th century in the peripheral ice sheet mass balance regions, with net mass gain exceeding losses in some regions and exceeding 5 m for the period 1961-2015 (medium evidence, high agreement). Hence, although in line with earlier observations, the total SLR for the period 19610165 exceeds the net ice sheet mass loss, with SLR often reaching over 3 m since the middle of the 20th century and exceeding 5 m in some regions (medium evidence, high agreement). It also suggests that a significant proportion of the total SLR observed in the periphery of the ice sheets is of an external origin, with significant contributions coming from the sea level rise in the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean and the expansion of the Greenland ice sheet as well as GMSL (medium evidence, high agreement). Overall, present and future changes in the ice sheet margin are found to be highly significant. The ice sheet margin is found to be retreating in some regions and expanding in others, and significant contributions from the ice sheet margin are noted for both GMSL and RSL (medium evidence, high agreement). The correlation between present and future external contributions to ice sheet mass balance is generally not very strong, probably due to the complex interaction with the dynamics of the ice sheet and its marginal processes (medium evidence, high agreement). However, the external contribution to GMSL observed to date does, however, confirm the expectations for a significant external contribution to GMSL SLR in the future (low evidence, high agreement). Hence, over the 20th century the contribution of external processes is of an overall negative sign, whereas an overall positive contribution of 3 m in the future is estimated from a scenario involving a state of GMSL SLR with respect to the reference period 1961-2001 (medium evidence, high agreement).
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